ETF inflows return as crypto enters 2026, but market is ‘still wrestling with internal fatigue’: analysts

Crypto markets began 2026 with renewed institutional support as spot Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP ETFs recorded significant net inflows between December 29 and January 2, contrasting with previous weeks of outflows. This external flow stabilized Bitcoin prices near $92,000, but analysts like Timothy Misir of BRN suggest the market is experiencing "internal fatigue" because conviction remains conditional, and price action is largely range-bound.

Beneath this surface support, onchain indicators are weakening; Bitcoin's 30-day realized capitalization turned negative, and long-term holders are increasingly realizing losses despite stable prices. Misir characterizes this divergence as a late-cycle dynamic where exhaustion, rather than fear, drives exits, suggesting that while ETF inflows may prevent deep drawdowns, sustained upside requires renewed onchain capital formation.

QCP Capital also maintains a cautious stance, noting that early January strength aligns with broader risk assets amid fragile post-holiday liquidity. They observed constructive positioning in options markets but warned that rallies continue to fade in U.S. sessions, shifting focus to upcoming economic data for future sentiment direction.

(Source：The Block)