Is Bitcoin Already in a Bear Market? Fidelity Chief Raises Concerns

Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, has raised concerns that Bitcoin may have already concluded its latest four-year cycle in October, based on price and time metrics. Data supporting this view includes a nearly 90% collapse in ERC-20 stablecoin inflows since August, suggesting dry powder for rallies has vanished. Furthermore, long-term holder selling accelerated dramatically after October, increasing daily distribution pressure by over 1,500%. Bitcoin's rising dominance is attributed to capital fleeing to relative safety within crypto, as evidenced by traditional hedges like silver and gold outperforming BTC significantly in 2025. Mega-whale addresses (holding over 10,000 BTC) are also declining. However, the bear market case is not fully settled because critical long-term indicators remain unbroken: the Pi Cycle Top indicator has not flashed a peak signal, and Bitcoin is still trading near its crucial 2-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $82,800. A decisive monthly close below $82,800 would escalate bear market risk, while reclaiming the 365-day moving average near $102,000 would weaken the bearish thesis.

(Source：BeInCrypto)