Bitcoin stalled at $90,000 because that “perfect” inflation report hides a massive data error
Bitcoin stalled near $90,000 because the seemingly positive inflation report is distorted by data errors, keeping real yields tight.Summary
Bitcoin briefly touched $90,000 following softer-than-expected inflation data and the Fed's third rate cut, but failed to rally parabolically. This muted response is attributed to several factors: the November CPI report is contaminated because October's data was skipped due to a government shutdown, leading to estimated price readings for rents and services. Fed Governor John Williams confirmed this data noise and signaled no immediate need for aggressive easing. Furthermore, real yields remain restrictive (around 1.9% for the 10-year TIPS), far above the negative rates of 2020-2021, as the Fed's shift from Quantitative Tightening is technical reserve management, not a return to QE. Adding to this, the Bank of Japan's first rate hike in three decades introduces latent stress regarding potential carry-trade unwinds. Internally, Bitcoin's liquidity is depleting, with heavy underwater supply between $93,000 and $120,000 suppressing rallies as buyers are mostly existing players, not fresh capital.
(Source：CryptoSlate)