Bitcoin’s hash rate is slipping, and history suggests the bottom may be in: VanEck
VanEck analysis suggests that Bitcoin's recent 4% hash rate decline, signaling miner capitulation, historically precedes strong price rebounds.Summary
Bitcoin's network hash rate experienced its steepest drop since April 2024, falling 4% over the last month. VanEck analysts Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel attribute this decline to miner capitulation, where higher-cost operators shut down due to reduced profitability caused by post-halving revenue pressure, weaker BTC prices, and reallocation of power to AI workloads.
Historical data analyzed by VanEck indicates that periods of negative hash rate growth often precede significant price gains for Bitcoin. Specifically, 90-day forward BTC returns were positive 65% of the time following hash rate drops, compared to 54% when the hash rate was rising. Over 180 days, negative 30-day hash rate growth corresponded with positive returns 77% of the time, averaging a 72% gain versus 48% when mining activity increased.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $88,000, despite some analysts forecasting a potential pullback toward $65,000 by 2026.
(Source：Crypto Briefing)