5 Charts Suggest Bitcoin Could Enter a Bear Market in Early 2026
Five indicators suggest Bitcoin's market structure is weakening, raising the risk of a bear market starting in early 2026.Summary
Despite Bitcoin holding above $88,000-$90,000 as of December 22, several on-chain and market structure indicators suggest the market is shifting from a late bull phase toward an early bear market by January 2026. The five key charts show that Bitcoin's apparent demand growth is flattening despite high prices, indicating reliance on momentum rather than fresh spot buying. Furthermore, US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are losing momentum, suggesting institutional capital is stepping back. Sophisticated investors, represented by 'dolphin' wallets (100-1,000 BTC), are reducing their exposure year-over-year, mirroring behavior seen before previous major drawdowns. Additionally, funding rates across exchanges are trending lower, signaling waning demand for leverage, and Bitcoin has broken below the critical 365-day moving average, a historical separator between bull and bear markets. If these trends persist, Bitcoin's realized price near $56,000 offers a historical reference point for potential bottoms in a full bear scenario, though prolonged consolidation is also possible.
(Source：BeInCrypto)