Hedera Stares at a Breakdown Despite an 11% Bounce — Here’s What Could Save It
Hedera's recent 11% bounce is precarious due to weakening capital flow, requiring a Bitcoin-led short squeeze to avoid a breakdown.Summary
Hedera (HBAR) has seen an 11% bounce from a local low on December 19, but this rally is overshadowed by a nearly 50% drop over the last three months and underlying weakness.
The primary concern is weakening capital flow, indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) trending lower against a descending trendline, signaling that large players are reducing exposure. A break below this CMF trendline would confirm active outflows and likely cause the recent price bounce to fail within its current descending channel.
Potential salvation lies in two factors: a high concentration of short positions (around $9.9 million in short liquidation leverage versus $6 million in longs) and HBAR's high correlation (0.85) with Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rallies, it could drag HBAR up, potentially triggering a short squeeze. Key price levels to watch are $0.10 for a breakdown confirmation and $0.13 for an upside move that could trigger liquidations. Without external support, the bounce is likely a dead cat bounce, keeping downside risk elevated.
(Source：BeInCrypto)