Why Bitcoin’s popular narratives don’t match the data: James Check on 2026

In a Cointelegraph interview, onchain analyst James Check asserts that while Bitcoin's price may seem familiar, the underlying market structure has changed significantly regarding leverage, investor cost bases, and sell-side behavior. A majority of current Bitcoin holders are underwater, leading to cautious sentiment. Check refutes the myth that long-term holders are not selling, noting that coins of all ages are returning to the market quickly, influencing recent price action. He also downplays the idea that ETFs or corporate treasuries have entirely captured Bitcoin, emphasizing instead the asset's increased size and liquidity, which absorbs large flows with less volatility than in previous cycles. Looking forward, Check presents his framework for 2026, aiming to balance blind optimism with bearish concerns.

(Source：Cointelegraph)