Did Bitcoin's 4-year cycle break, and is the bull market really over?
Analysts debate if Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is broken due to new demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries.Summary
Bitcoin has historically followed four-year cycles tied to halving events, peaking 12-18 months after and then entering a bear market, which seemed to repeat after the April 2024 halving with a peak near $126,200 in October followed by a 30% decline. On-chain metrics like the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) support this bearish narrative, suggesting traders are selling at a loss. However, multiple major firms suggest the cycle may be broken due to new demand drivers. Grayscale predicts a new BTC record high by mid-2026, citing macro risks to fiat currencies and the role of scarce assets like Bitcoin as a hedge. Fidelity suggests Bitcoin may enter a 'supercycle,' similar to commodities, driven by an 'entirely new cohort and class of investors,' evidenced by massive inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs and significant corporate treasury holdings, which may alter the traditional boom-and-bust dynamics.
(Source：Cointelegraph)