Polymarket faces major credibility crisis after whales forced a “YES” UFO vote without evidence

The prediction market Polymarket resolved a $16 million market regarding the Trump administration declassifying UFO files in 2025 to "YES," despite no public evidence or White House declassification order appearing.

The resolution occurred after late-session buying near 99-99.9 cents and was finalized through UMA's Optimistic Oracle, which involves token-weighted voting by liquidity providers following disputes. Critics argue that large traders ("whales") exploited this structure by buying near-par just before finalization, effectively using their stake to override trader consensus, leading to accusations that Polymarket is a "scam" operating on a "proof-of-whales" model.

The controversy highlights structural issues in subjective government-action markets, suggesting Polymarket needs clearer rules, longer challenge windows, and explicit primary source lists to avoid such credibility crises, especially as regulators increase scrutiny on prediction platforms.

(Source：CryptoSlate)