‘Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze’: Standard Chartered halves 2025 bitcoin target to $100K, but keeps long-term bull case

Standard Chartered has significantly lowered its near-term Bitcoin price forecasts, cutting the end-of-2025 target from $200,000 to $100,000 and extending the projection for reaching $500,000 from 2028 to 2030. This recalibration, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research, was prompted by recent price action.

The bank now believes that the primary driver of demand—buying by corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs)—has largely concluded due to unfavorable valuation multiples. The new framework assumes zero further DAT buying, relying solely on periodic ETF inflows (estimated at 200,000 BTC quarterly) as the structural demand leg. Kendrick argues that the Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver, replaced by long-term ETF buyer accumulation.

Despite the slower near-term path, Standard Chartered maintains a structurally bullish long-term view, based on portfolio optimization models suggesting global portfolios are significantly underweight Bitcoin relative to gold. The bank reiterates that “crypto winters are a thing of the past,” viewing the current situation as a “cold breeze” rather than a structural break.

(Source：The Block)