Bitcoin’s Famous 4-Year Cycle Is Breaking Down — What Now?
Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle appears to be breaking down as the asset matures, shifting focus to macro factors and sentiment.Summary
Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle tied to its halving events, typically peaking the year after. However, following the 2024 halving, the expected speculative blow-off top in 2025 has not materialized, leading analysts like Michael Saylor to declare the cycle "dead."
This breakdown is attributed to Bitcoin maturing as an asset class, with its price movements increasingly correlating with broader economic cycles, particularly global liquidity and the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). While PMI suggests economic health, Bitcoin's correlation with it is unstable, and it often responds more strongly to monetary policy signals from the Fed.
Crucially, due to the lack of traditional valuation anchors, sentiment, driven by social media and retail participation, remains a primary driver, especially during extreme market phases, potentially accounting for 60-70%+ of price variance. Ultimately, while the retail-driven four-year cycle may be fading, the fundamental driver—the desire for non-intermediated digital wealth storage—remains intact, suggesting altcoins will follow when Bitcoin eventually takes off again.
(Source：BeInCrypto)