Goldman Lifts Brent Forecast as Hormuz Closure Drains Global Oil Inventories

Goldman Sachs has increased its Brent crude oil price forecast to an average of $90 per barrel for the fourth quarter, a significant rise from its previous $80 estimate. This revision is driven by fears of prolonged disruption to Middle East oil supplies due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US-Iran peace talks. Analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby noted that production losses of 14.5 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf are depleting global oil stockpiles at an unprecedented rate of 11 to 12 million barrels daily. They warned that these "extreme inventory draws are not sustainable" and could necessitate a steeper demand drop if the supply crunch persists. Goldman also projects a substantial supply deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day for the current quarter, a stark contrast to last year's surplus. The bank assumes a slower normalization of Gulf exports and production recovery, highlighting significant economic risks beyond just oil prices, including high refined-product prices and potential shortages.

(Source：BeInCrypto)