Bitcoin Sell-Off: VanEck Says Mid-Cycle Holders Driving Downturn as Whales Stay Steady
VanEck reports that Bitcoin's recent sell-off is driven by mid-cycle holders, while long-term whales remain steady.Summary
VanEck's 'Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck' report indicates that Bitcoin's current price decline is primarily caused by wallets whose coins last moved within the past five years, categorized as mid-cycle holders. Conversely, the oldest cohorts (coins last moved over five years ago) have remained stable, even accumulating about 278,000 BTC over the last two years, suggesting long-term conviction is intact. This analysis comes as BTC trades near multi-month lows, down significantly from its October all-time high. VanEck links the selling pressure to turnover among cycle traders, noting a 32% drop in the 3–5 year age band over two years. Furthermore, speculative positioning has reset, with open interest in perpetuals dropping significantly, pushing funding rates to levels seen in previous market capitulations. VanEck concludes that this combination of stable long-term holders, cohort rotation, and futures market capitulation positions Bitcoin in a 'reset' state historically preceding tactical rebounds.
(Source：CoinDesk)