Traders put 50/50 odds on Bitcoin ending 2025 below $90k amid $3B ETF outflows
Traders see a 50% chance Bitcoin ends 2025 below $90k due to macro tightening and $3B in ETF outflows.Summary
Bitcoin traders are increasingly bearish, with options markets pricing a 50% probability that the asset will close 2025 below $90,000, driven by structural capital flight and tightening macro conditions. Implied volatility has risen significantly, suggesting traders anticipate a prolonged shift rather than a temporary dip. This pessimism is fueled by nearly $3 billion in net outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs in one month, removing a crucial stabilizing demand source. Furthermore, long-term holders are selling, though some analysts suggest this is a strategic rotation to new institutional buyers. The overall environment is dominated by macro headwinds, as expectations for a December Fed rate cut have diminished, causing Bitcoin to trade more like a high-beta risk asset under pressure from rising Treasury yields and thinning liquidity.
(Source：CryptoSlate)