Think BlackRock Is Bullish on Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Says They’re Not, Here’s Why
Arthur Hayes argues that major BlackRock IBIT ETF inflows reflect arbitrage trading, not genuine institutional long-term Bitcoin conviction.Summary
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes contends that the significant institutional inflows into BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF do not signify long-term bullish conviction but rather a straightforward arbitrage trade known as a basis trade. This involves funds buying ETF shares while simultaneously shorting CME Bitcoin futures to capture the yield difference (the basis). Hayes notes this activity became more attractive as the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2025. He warns that retail investors misinterpret the resulting surge in ETF inflows when the basis spikes, and sharp outflows when the basis compresses, as institutional buying or dumping. With artificial demand drivers like the ETF basis trade and digital asset trust buying fading, Hayes concludes that Bitcoin must now fall to reflect the underlying macro environment and potential contraction in dollar liquidity.
(Source：BeInCrypto)