Is Bitcoin Outgrowing Its 4-Year Cycle? 2026 Could Mark a Turning Point
Analysts suggest Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle may be obsolete, with 2026 potentially marking a peak influenced by institutional capital and global liquidity.Summary
Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, historically tied to halving events, may be evolving due to increased institutional capital and global liquidity dynamics. Veteran trader Bob Loukas noted that the current cycle is different, cautioning against rigid expectations for a bear market starting in 2026, as extensions into Q1 or Q2 of next year are still within historical bounds.
Some analysts now suggest Bitcoin follows a five-year cycle, pointing out that the post-2024 halving phase has yielded only an 18% gain, a significant slowdown compared to previous cycles (e.g., 9,300% in 2013). This slower rhythm is attributed to stretching business cycles and slower liquidity waves.
Furthermore, experts argue that as a $2.5 trillion asset, Bitcoin is now primarily driven by global liquidity (like M2 money supply expansion) rather than just block rewards. With global liquidity rising again, the next major peak is projected around Q2 2026, signaling the potential end of the predictable four-year cycle era.
(Source：BeInCrypto)