Bernstein sees Robinhood Q1 miss as priced in, maintains $130 target implying 58% upside

Bernstein analysts have maintained their bullish outlook on Robinhood, believing the company's first-quarter financial misses are already reflected in its stock price. Despite Q1 revenue falling short of estimates by 7% and adjusted EPS missing by 8%, Bernstein noted that crypto revenue stabilized in April. The firm highlighted positive platform metrics, including a record margin book and strong equity and options volumes in April. Robinhood Gold subscribers also saw a 36% year-over-year increase. Prediction markets are identified as a key growth driver, contributing significantly to revenue. Bernstein reiterated its outperform rating and a $130 price target, suggesting a potential 58% upside, driven by prediction markets and stabilizing crypto trading.

Bernstein also pointed to Robinhood's upcoming joint venture exchange, Rothera, expected in mid-2026, which aims to give the company more control over pricing and product selection for event contracts. Additionally, Robinhood's appointment as the sole initial trustee for "Trump Accounts," a new initiative with BNY, was highlighted. The company plans to invest $100 million in this vertical, adjusting its 2026 operating expense guidance. The analysts believe asymmetric upside for Robinhood is primarily fueled by its prediction markets and the stabilization of its crypto trading activity.

(Source：The Block)