Bitcoin outlook still clouded by ‘extreme fear’ amid macro uncertainty and profit-taking despite rally to $76K, analysts say

Despite Bitcoin's recent rally to over $76,300, analysts indicate that market sentiment remains cautious, with the crypto Fear and Greed Index still in 'extreme fear' territory. This divergence is attributed to ongoing macro uncertainties, including inflation and policy stress, which have not fully cleared despite a perceived easing of tail-risk and dollar pressure. While spot demand and ETF flows have improved, the recovery lacks depth, and profit-taking has increased. Analysts point to uneven buying across different exchanges, with offshore and retail demand appearing to drive recent gains more than U.S. institutional participation. Furthermore, a significant portion of the recent upward movement may be attributed to concentrated buying linked to Strategy's preferred-share machine, which financed a substantial Bitcoin purchase. The market is now focused on the $75,000 level as a key resistance, with a potential pullback to $70,000-$71,000 if it fails to hold. Broader market factors, including record highs in U.S. stocks and oil prices below $100, contribute to this mixed picture. Attention is also shifting towards the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes. While some indicators suggest a potential bottoming regime and a long-term appeal for Bitcoin amid geopolitical stress, concerns about profit-taking and supply-side pressures from public miners remain. Overall, the market shows constructive support but lacks euphoria, with Bitcoin rallying into resistance rather than breaking free.

(Source：The Block)