Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda Flags Bitcoin’s ‘Binary Risk’ as Trump’s Iran Deadline Looms

Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda has highlighted a 'binary risk' for Bitcoin (BTC) as President Trump's ultimatum to Iran approaches. The situation presents a pure escalation or relief scenario for traders. Bitcoin recently dipped below $69,000 after briefly exceeding $70,000, following Iran's rejection of a ceasefire proposal and Trump's declaration of a final deadline. Rodda suggests markets are in a holding pattern, anticipating either strikes and escalation, or a relief rally. A major escalation could negatively impact BTC through rising Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar, driven by oil price surges. The US Dollar Index (DXY) shows patterns similar to previous periods that preceded Bitcoin drawdowns. However, Rodda also notes underlying resilience in Bitcoin, with tentative signs of bottoming. Technical analysis reveals BTC has been consolidating within a bear flag pattern for approximately 60 days. Despite this, institutional demand remains constructive, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows in March and MicroStrategy resuming BTC accumulation. Implied volatility in the options market has decreased, indicating easing hedging demand. While traders assign a low probability to an immediate ceasefire, reports suggest Trump might delay the deadline if a deal seems close, adding further uncertainty to Bitcoin's reaction.

(Source：BeInCrypto)