Polymarket Gives Trump’s Iran Deadline Only a 3% Chance
BeInCrypto
Polymarket traders assign a mere 3% probability to Donald Trump’s Tuesday deadline for an Iran ceasefire resulting in a deal.Summary
Polymarket traders are signaling extreme skepticism toward Donald Trump’s Tuesday deadline for an Iran ceasefire, placing the probability of success at only 3%. This sentiment follows Iran's rejection of a 45-day ceasefire proposal in favor of their own 10-point plan for a permanent end to the conflict.
Beyond the ceasefire, prediction markets reflect broader geopolitical and economic concerns, with traders betting that global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will remain disrupted. Additionally, there is a 77% probability that WTI crude oil prices will reach $120 in April, indicating that the market anticipates the conflict will continue to drive up energy costs.
(Source：BeInCrypto)