Bitcoin price analysis: BTC is closer to its 'buy zone' than it's been in three years
Bitcoin's price is approaching a potential 'buy zone,' but on-chain data suggests a full market capitulation hasn't occurred yet.Summary
Bitcoin's spot price is compressing towards its realized price, a level historically associated with cycle bottoms. However, unlike previous bear markets, the current price remains at a 21% premium to the realized price, meaning the average holder is still profitable. While the gap has closed rapidly from 120% in late 2024, a complete reset—where the spot price falls below the realized price—hasn't happened. On-chain signals, such as a negative Coinbase Premium Index, indicate incomplete market reset. Despite this, Bitcoin has shown resilience in the $65,000-$70,000 range and continues to see ETF inflows, suggesting underlying demand. The analysis suggests the market hasn't yet experienced the typical 'pain' associated with a definitive bottom, but is getting closer to a potential buying opportunity.
(Source：CoinDesk)