Nearly half of all circulating bitcoin is underwater as long-term holders sell at a loss
Nearly half of all circulating bitcoin is now trading at a loss, signaling high market stress.Summary
Nearly half of all circulating Bitcoin is currently trading at a loss, causing the Bitcoin Impact Index to surge to 57.4, indicating "high impact" stress levels not seen since January. Long-term holders, who were selling profitably just a week prior, now have over 4.6 million BTC underwater, with realized losses reaching their worst levels since 2023. This divergence between price action and on-chain conviction is historically a warning sign for significant price drops. Furthermore, capital flows supporting the market have reversed; stablecoin inflows have turned to outflows, and ETFs and miners have shifted from accumulation to selling. Despite this stress, a key support remains as holders are not yet rushing to deposit BTC onto exchanges en masse, which usually precedes full capitulation.
(Source：CoinDesk)