TD Cowen says prediction market bills unlikely to pass this year, flags 2028 election as ‘real threat’
TD Cowen believes current prediction market bills will not pass this year, viewing the 2028 election as the sector's main legislative risk.Summary
Investment bank TD Cowen suggests that the recent flurry of bills introduced in the U.S. Congress targeting prediction markets—covering topics like sporting events, government action, terrorism, and war—are unlikely to become law during this session, labeling them primarily as "messaging bills." Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group states the 'real threat' is the 2028 presidential election, driven by bipartisan concerns that event contracts might override state gaming laws. Even if legislation advanced, a presidential veto is expected, which Congress likely couldn't override. Meanwhile, legal battles are already underway in several states challenging the legality of prediction market contracts. Seiberg warns that prediction markets may be banking on establishing themselves firmly before 2028, but worry among Democrats about nationwide rollout and Republican concerns over states' rights to regulate gambling suggest high policy risk remains for the sector.
(Source：The Block)