Bitcoin eyes bullish move to $75,000 where the real fight for recovery is decided beyond Iran pause
Bitcoin rose above $71,000 as markets reacted to a pause in US-Iran conflict, with its next move dependent on oil prices and Fed policy.Summary
Bitcoin continued its upward trend, trading above $71,000 following President Trump's five-day pause on planned US attacks against Iranian infrastructure. This price action suggests Bitcoin is increasingly tied to institutional demand and broader liquidity conditions rather than just retail flows, as it held up despite war risk and expectations of slower Fed easing.
The primary link between the geopolitical conflict and global markets remains oil, as the Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy chokepoint. A sustained rise in crude lifts inflation expectations, potentially delaying central bank easing. For Bitcoin to rally toward the $75,000 level, crude prices need to retreat, easing inflation concerns and strengthening expectations for rate cuts.
Market structure data indicates Bitcoin has moved past a dense supply zone ($59,000–$72,000) into a thinner band ($72,000–$82,000). Investment product inflows remain strong, suggesting underlying demand, but the market remains highly sensitive to the Fed's policy path. The $75,000 level is key; breaking it could trigger upside hedging flows, while a drop back below $70,000 would return it to heavier supply traffic.
(Source：CryptoSlate)