Bitcoin hovers below key ‘air gap’ as geopolitical risks and Fed outlook cloud direction

Bitcoin is struggling to find a clear direction, hovering around $71,000, as geopolitical tensions and shifting monetary policy expectations pull the market in opposite directions. Recent price swings, triggered by temporary relief over potential de-escalation in the Middle East followed by denials, have eroded confidence in macro signals. Demand indicators are cooling, evidenced by sharply lower spot ETF inflows and declining trading volumes, while derivatives markets suggest renewed selling pressure and increased demand for downside protection.

Despite the caution, analysts note that Bitcoin's ability to hold above $67,000 suggests underlying high-conviction institutional positioning. The next key technical level is acceptance above $72,000, which could target $82,000, but failure to break higher will likely keep the asset range-bound. Ultimately, macro conditions—including a hawkish Fed stance and escalating geopolitical risk—remain the dominant force, causing price action to be driven more by rapid headline shifts than fundamentals.

(Source：The Block)