Equity, oil and bond markets have freaked out. Bitcoin traders have not.
While traditional markets reacted with volatility to the Iran conflict, Bitcoin's implied volatility remained stable, indicating calmer crypto traders.Summary
Bitcoin has shown resilience amidst the recent conflict between Iran, the U.S., and Israel, with its implied volatility remaining steady while equity, oil, and bond markets experienced significant spikes in volatility. The bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has held between 55% and 60%, suggesting traders haven't aggressively sought downside protection through put options. In contrast, the VIX (equities), OVX (crude oil), and MOVE (U.S. Treasury notes) all surged. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin traders are less fearful, potentially because the cryptocurrency market had already experienced a price correction prior to the conflict, and has historically performed well during geopolitical events, even rallying over 10% in the two weeks since the conflict began. River's analysis shows Bitcoin has averaged double-digit returns during similar events since 2020.
(Source：CoinDesk)