Polymarket Bets On Solana Price – $60 First or $140? Neither Likely
Despite a recent breakout, Solana's rally faces sustainability risks indicated by high NVT ratios and continued exchange inflows.Summary
Solana (SOL) has recently broken out, generating optimism, but the sustainability of this rally is questionable due to underlying metrics. The Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) is flashing a warning, suggesting network value is outpacing actual transaction volume, a divergence historically preceding price reversals. Furthermore, exchange net position change data shows ongoing SOL inflows, indicating persistent selling pressure that acts as a ceiling on price advancement.
In parallel, Polymarket users are betting on whether SOL will first hit $60 or $140 by December 31, 2026. Given the current price near $94, neither target seems imminent, and the market suggests SOL may remain range-bound below $100. While the probability of hitting $60 first has slightly decreased, the overall outlook suggests both extreme targets are unlikely in the near term.
Technically, SOL is trading above the $92 support following a megaphone pattern breakout, targeting $103, but a decisive breach above $100 is required to confirm this move. However, due to the fundamental concerns (NVT and exchange inflows), this breakout risks failure unless selling pressure subsides and broader market conditions strengthen.
(Source：BeInCrypto)