China’s Taiwan Threat Puts $10.6 Trillion at Risk, Next Trigger for Bitcoin Rally?

China recently resumed large-scale military operations near Taiwan, prompting analysts to re-evaluate the economic risks associated with a potential conflict. Taiwan is crucial to the global semiconductor supply chain, producing over 60% of the world's chips, including most advanced AI processors via TSMC. Bloomberg Economics modeled that a full-scale US-China war over Taiwan could result in $10.6 trillion in global losses, equivalent to about 10% of global GDP, far exceeding the damage from the 2008 crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Even a blockade could slash global GDP by 2.8% in the first year due to immediate supply chain shortages.

Amid this rising geopolitical stress, which is compounded by the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated notable strength, gaining about 7% since the escalation of Middle East tensions. Analysts suggest Bitcoin's structural properties—being portable, digital, liquid, and having no counterparty risk—make it resilient during stress. Furthermore, increasing BTC holdings in ETFs and long-term wallets may reduce short-term selling pressure.

In contrast to this cautious outlook, investor Robert Kiyosaki warned that the global economy is nearing the biggest bubble in history, predicting that if it bursts, Bitcoin could hit $750,000 a year later.

(Source：BeInCrypto)