Prediction Markets Will Scale As Far As Resolution Infrastructure Allows
Prediction markets are maturing beyond initial growth, with trust and reliable resolution infrastructure now being key to sustained scaling and attracting capital.Summary
Prediction markets are no longer experimental, demonstrating sustained volume and institutional interest, reaching over $13 billion in monthly volume by late 2025. While liquidity and user acquisition are less of a concern, trust is becoming paramount, and the primary risk is shifting towards resolution. The article argues that resolution architecture is becoming a critical infrastructure component, similar to custody and execution in other areas of crypto. Reliable resolution—the deterministic conversion of conditional claims into redeemable value—is essential for attracting serious capital and preventing engagement decline. The author highlights the importance of explicit resolution rules, minimized ambiguity in question design, scalable bond sizes, predictable arbitration, and low resolution latency, advocating for a shift in focus from acquiring users to building robust infrastructure.
(Source：Cointelegraph)