No ‘Q-Day’ Shock: ARK Invest Maps 5 Stages of Quantum Risk for Bitcoin

ARK Invest and Unchained have released a white paper detailing a five-stage framework for assessing the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin (BTC). They contend that a sudden “Q-Day” event is unlikely, and the risk will emerge gradually, allowing time for adaptation. The framework ranges from Stage 0, where quantum computers lack commercial utility, to Stage 4, where they could break Bitcoin’s encryption faster than its block time. Currently, quantum computers are in Stage 0. The report highlights that older Bitcoin deposits are more vulnerable, but quantum-resistant addresses are available. They also note that progress in post-quantum cryptography is currently outpacing the development of cryptographically relevant quantum computers. Three scenarios are presented – pessimistic, optimistic, and balanced – with the balanced scenario predicting Stage 3 risk within 10-20 years. The authors conclude that Bitcoin is not currently at risk and that the community has time to prepare.

(Source：BeInCrypto)