Bitcoin’s next move is increasingly tied to oil, yields and Fed policy as ETF flows guide market direction, analysts say
Bitcoin's future direction is now heavily influenced by macro factors like oil prices, bond yields, and Fed policy, following a deleveraging phase.Summary
Analysts at Bitfinex suggest that Bitcoin's market structure has shifted, moving from a leverage-driven correction to a macro-driven consolidation phase where liquidity conditions are paramount, especially since derivatives leverage has sharply decreased. Key external factors now driving price action include oil prices, U.S. real yields, and Federal Reserve policy. Rising oil prices, linked to geopolitical tensions, tend to increase inflation expectations, potentially delaying interest rate cuts and tightening financial conditions, causing Bitcoin to trade more like a technology stock correlated with risk assets rather than a safe haven.
Despite macro pressures, signs of stabilization exist, primarily through consistent net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which analysts see as a key indicator of institutional sentiment. If ETF flows remain positive and macro conditions are neutral, Bitcoin is expected to trade between $63,000 and $72,000. Technical levels suggest support at $60,000 and resistance around $78,000.
However, the broader macro backdrop remains uncertain. If oil-driven inflation causes yields to rise further, Bitcoin could test the $60,000 support zone. Conversely, sustained ETF inflows could lead to a gradual grind higher toward the low $70,000s.
(Source：The Block)