Bitcoin reveals a rare bullish cycle bottom signal before bouncing as futures bears tighten their grip
Bitcoin's weekly RSI hit a rare oversold extreme, signaling capitulation, but thin liquidity and bearish futures suggest a base-building phase rather than an immediate reversal.Summary
Bitcoin is exhibiting one of its most oversold weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings on record, comparable only to major bear market bottoms in 2018 and 2022, suggesting market capitulation is underway. However, analysts caution that this extreme momentum reading often precedes a messy, range-bound recovery rather than a swift V-shaped bounce, as realized losses continue to dominate trading. On-chain data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant indicates that retail holders are capitulating while larger buyers absorb supply, a pattern typical of late-stage corrections. Furthermore, the market faces headwinds from significant net outflows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs, thinner market depth, and stagnant stablecoin growth, which amplify downside pressure. Compounding this, futures market data shows bears remain in control with negative funding rates, suggesting the market is currently in a defensive base-building phase rather than having definitively found a durable bottom.
(Source：CryptoSlate)