Bitcoin Price Below $63K: What Past Cycles Say Happens Before the Bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing loss-driven selling for the first time since 2022, as indicated by its 90-day moving average realized profit/loss ratio slipping below 1. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that historically, such a drop precedes at least six months of continued loss realization, often associated with panic selling or risk-off sentiment. In previous bear markets, this phase was followed by significant price declines; for instance, BTC fell 25% six months after this signal in 2022 and over 50% in five months in 2018. If history repeats, this current regime could persist for another five months or more. This sustained selling pressure may drag the BTC price down to its "extreme low" valuation zones, specifically around $43,760, a level historically coinciding with bear market bottoms, potentially by August.

(Source：Cointelegraph)