Bitcoin’s Famous Ramadan Rally Seems Less Likely in 2026, But Some Patterns Look Familiar
The historical Bitcoin Ramadan rally pattern is less likely in 2026, though familiar volatility structures remain visible.Summary
Bitcoin's perceived "Ramadan rally"—a pattern observed in six of the last seven years featuring early sharp moves followed by choppiness—appears less likely to materialize strongly in 2026, although the general volatility structure is still present.
The historical pattern was not about consistent price increases during Ramadan, but rather a timing and structure pattern involving front-loaded volatility and a weaker finish. This year's start deviated, showing chop and a flush before a bounce attempt, suggesting a weaker market setup so far.
On-chain data presents a mixed picture: the Binance Buying Power Index is at a low suggesting a potential relief bounce, but weak network activity for six months and negative realized losses for short-term holders indicate soft underlying demand and fragile upside potential.
(Source：BeInCrypto)