Bitcoin Loses Bullish Weekly Trend After 126 Weeks: What Next?
Bitcoin closed below its 200-week EMA for the first time since 2023, ending an 882-day uptrend and shifting focus to historical accumulation zones.Summary
Bitcoin (BTC) recently closed a weekly candle below its 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) near $67,628, marking the first such close since October 2023 and ending a technical uptrend that lasted 882 days (approximately 126 weeks).
Analysts suggest this break means the 200-week EMA, a key long-term trend indicator, may now act as resistance. Historical data from 2018, 2020, and 2022 shows that reclaiming this level took between eight and 30 weeks, averaging around 17 to 18 weeks. Furthermore, momentum indicators like entity-adjusted liveliness have declined, signaling reduced spending activity, which could prolong the time needed for recovery.
Attention now turns to on-chain cost-basis levels, specifically Bitcoin's realized price near $55,000 and the shifted realized price near $42,000. Historically, the area between the 200-week EMA and the realized price bands has served as a long-term accumulation zone, suggesting consolidation for six to eight months before upside continuation.
(Source：Cointelegraph)