Polymarket Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $75,000 Next Week, But Charts Disagree

Bitcoin is trading flat near $68,000, reflecting indecision, even as the Polymarket prediction market shows 17% of participants betting on a price above $75,000 by the end of February. However, technical analysis and on-chain metrics contradict this optimism. The daily chart shows a hidden bearish divergence between the price (lower high) and the Relative Strength Index (higher high), signaling a likely continuation of the existing downtrend.

Furthermore, long-term holders have slowed their selling by about 67% but remain net sellers, indicating a lack of strong accumulation needed for a major breakout. Whale behavior is also split, with large whales accumulating slightly while smaller whales sell. Crucially, significant resistance exists between $72,600 and $73,200 due to cost basis clusters, which must be broken for the $75,000 target to be feasible. The current price structure suggests Bitcoin is trapped between this resistance and strong support near $63,300, making range-bound movement or a correction more probable than a significant rally.

(Source：BeInCrypto)