Bitcoin may tumble toward $30,000 next year unless it shows real progress toward quantum proof upgrades

Charles Edwards of Capriole warns that Bitcoin's market value should already reflect a quantum risk discount, projecting a potential drop to around $30,000 next year if the network doesn't advance toward quantum-proof code. Edwards estimates Bitcoin is currently undervalued by 30% based on a fair value of $120,000, but this valuation is threatened by the timeline for quantum computing capabilities, which he estimates could break current cryptography by 2030 or 2031. The core issue is the governance gap: migrating users to quantum-resistant wallets could take years, forcing markets to discount the asset now due to slow upgrade coordination. Furthermore, 20% to 30% of the Bitcoin supply is considered "public key exposed" and vulnerable. While proposals like BIP 360 exist, the debate centers on whether Bitcoin can demonstrate sufficient visible progress on an upgrade path to prevent quantum uncertainty from further depressing valuations in a fragile market.

(Source：CryptoSlate)