How Will Bitcoin React if the US Military Strikes Iran This Weekend?
Growing fears of a potential US military strike on Iran are adding uncertainty to Bitcoin, which trades near $66,400.Summary
Bitcoin is trading near $66,400 amid rising geopolitical uncertainty due to reports that US military options against Iran are ready for execution this weekend. Escalating tensions follow stalled nuclear talks and increased military deployments in the Middle East. Bitcoin's price action reflects this uncertainty, having fallen from cycle highs, with on-chain data showing short-term holders are selling at a loss (SOPR below 1) and the Sharpe ratio is extremely negative, indicating market stress.
If a strike occurs, Bitcoin is expected to react in two phases: an immediate sell-off as investors flee to cash, consistent with its behavior as a risk asset during initial crises. However, the second phase might see a short-lived drop because on-chain signals suggest the asset is already deeply oversold, reducing forced selling pressure. Furthermore, prolonged geopolitical uncertainty can eventually boost Bitcoin's appeal as investors seek assets outside traditional systems. The immediate future depends heavily on whether tensions escalate into conflict or ease via diplomacy.
(Source：BeInCrypto)