Kalshi’s Crowd Bets Rival Fed Economists—Could Markets Really Predict Monetary Policy?
A study shows Kalshi's prediction market forecasts for the Fed funds rate rival professional economists' predictions over a 150-day horizon.Summary
A recent study indicates that forecasts derived from Kalshi's prediction market regarding the federal funds target rate are comparably accurate to those from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Professional Forecasters over a 150-day horizon. This growing credibility is coinciding with an intense regulatory showdown, as CFTC Chair Michael Selig asserts exclusive federal oversight, evidenced by filing an amicus brief in a case challenging state gaming regulations (Crypto.com vs. Nevada Gaming Control Board). This federal-state conflict over jurisdiction is drawing political backlash, with figures like Governor Spencer Cox and Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizing the CFTC's stance. Amid this turbulence, institutional interest is rising, with firms like Bitwise filing for ETFs based on election prediction contracts, a move criticized by some experts as financializing sentiment. The outcome of the regulatory battle will likely determine if prediction markets become core financial infrastructure or remain a controversial niche.
(Source：BeInCrypto)