Bitcoin price prediction: BTC can bounce but market still lacks fuel for a real run

Bitcoin is currently capable of short-lived rallies, supported by cooling inflation expectations that suggest potential rate cuts, which typically favor risk assets like crypto. However, the market lacks the necessary fuel for a durable advance because the Federal Reserve is expected to pursue a measured easing cycle rather than aggressive stimulus. This environment leads to volatile, wave-like price movements where any bounce is quickly absorbed by steady selling pressure, often coinciding with a stronger dollar or hawkish Fed commentary. Sentiment remains fragile, evidenced by low fear gauge readings and signs of stress among long-term holders, suggesting that while tactical upside is possible when positioning is overly defensive, a true structural breakout requires clearer confirmation of disinflation trends and consistent spot demand.

(Source：CoinDesk)