Bitcoin approaches ‘late bear market territory’ as regime signals echo 2022 bottom, K33 says
K33 research indicates Bitcoin's market structure resembles the late 2022 bear market, suggesting a prolonged consolidation rather than an immediate breakout.Summary
According to research firm K33, Bitcoin's current market conditions closely mirror those of the late 2022 bear market, with derivatives positioning, ETF flows, and macro indicators pointing towards a prolonged period of consolidation. K33’s proprietary regime indicator shows strong similarities to September and November 2022, periods near the previous market bottom. However, past similar regimes were followed by sluggish price action and lengthy consolidation. Bitcoin has already experienced a nearly 28% drop since January, with defensive positioning in derivatives and declining leverage. K33 expects Bitcoin to trade between $60,000 and $75,000 for an extended period, advising patience. Institutional investors have reduced exposure to Bitcoin ETPs but largely maintained their positions, and sentiment indicators show extreme pessimism without reliably predicting a strong rebound. K33 concludes that while downside risks may be limited, a rapid recovery is unlikely, echoing the slow stabilization after the 2022 bottom.
(Source：The Block)