Bitcoin is only 5% away from the “buy zone” which could trigger start of the next bull run
Bitcoin is nearing the 50% drawdown 'buy zone,' historically a strong entry point, but new ETF plumbing and macro factors complicate this cycle.Summary
A popular Bitcoin chart suggests that buying at a 50% drawdown offers a high win rate and significant returns over the next year. With Bitcoin trading near $68,000, it is currently only about 5% away from this 50% drawdown level (around $63,000, based on a previous peak of $126,000).
However, the article cautions that historical drawdowns greater than 50% have often involved declines averaging 80% and recoveries taking close to three years, testing investor confidence. The current market structure is different due to spot Bitcoin ETFs, which add a visible, measurable element to price action. Large ETF outflows can amplify selling pressure, though stabilizing flows could signal capitulation is ending.
The near term is framed by three conditional lanes: a grinding base case holding the mid-$60,000s, a liquidity-friendly case driven by easing macro conditions and positive ETF flows, or a deeper capitulation case sliding toward $50,000. The author suggests that strategic dollar-cost averaging (DCA) augmented by buying dips is a prudent strategy, as the market dynamics are significantly altered by institutional ownership compared to previous cycles.
(Source：CryptoSlate)