If Bitcoin drops 5% more it can trigger a bull stampede from the “buy zone” sitting around $63k
A further 5% drop in Bitcoin could push it into a historical 'buy zone' near $63k, potentially triggering significant buying.Summary
A circulating chart suggests that buying Bitcoin after a 50% drawdown historically yields high returns, with the current price near $68,000 putting the 50% drawdown level around $63,000. While this 'buy zone' acts as a psychological trigger, historical data from iShares shows that such deep drawdowns (over 50%) have often involved declines nearing 80% and recoveries taking close to three years. The current market dynamics are complicated by the presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which introduce new factors like measurable daily flows that can amplify selling pressure during outflows. The near-term outlook depends on macroeconomic conditions, ETF flows stabilizing, and options market uncertainty. Three potential paths are outlined: a grinding base case holding the low $60,000s, a friendly case driven by easing inflation and positive ETF flows, or a deeper capitulation case sliding toward $50,000. The article cautions that while historical timing suggests this is a good buying period, the institutional mechanics of the ETF era mean "this time is different," suggesting strategic dollar-cost averaging (DCA) might be preferable to precise market timing.
(Source：CryptoSlate)