US debt hits WWII-era extremes with $64 trillion owed, but one market price decides whether Bitcoin benefits
US national debt is projected to hit $64 trillion by 2036, potentially benefiting Bitcoin if rising term premiums signal financial repression.Summary
The US national debt is projected to reach nearly $64 trillion over the next decade, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 120% by 2036, a level not seen since after World War II. This trajectory increases interest costs significantly, potentially leading to financial repression if the bond market demands a persistently higher term premium to absorb the massive Treasury supply. This scenario—where higher borrowing costs force political seeking of relief through lower rates or inflation tolerance—historically favors hard assets like Bitcoin. Simultaneously, the US dollar is facing multi-year bearish sentiment due to governance concerns, although its reserve status remains dominant. Bitcoin's macro case hinges on which regime emerges: an orderly grind, a fiscal risk-premium environment favoring scarce assets, or a dollar paradox where stablecoin growth deepens dollarization by supporting short-term Treasury demand. Investors are watching term premium increases, central bank credibility shocks, reserve diversification, and stablecoin flows to gauge the path forward for both the dollar and Bitcoin.
(Source：CryptoSlate)