CryptoQuant says bitcoin’s ‘ultimate’ bear market bottom is around $55,000
CryptoQuant suggests Bitcoin's ultimate bear market bottom is near $55,000, based on realized price support and historical patterns.Summary
Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin's "ultimate" bear market bottom is currently situated around $55,000, noting that bottoms usually form over several months rather than in a single capitulation event. This estimate is based on Bitcoin's realized price, which historically acts as major support; currently, Bitcoin trades over 25% above this level, similar to past cycles where prices dipped significantly below realized price before basing for four to six months. Further evidence suggesting the bottom is not yet in includes high daily realized losses, although monthly cumulative realized losses remain low compared to the 2022 bear market end. Key valuation indicators like the MVRV ratio and NUPL metric have not yet entered the extreme undervalued zones associated with cycle lows. Additionally, long-term holders are selling near breakeven, unlike the 30%–40% losses seen at prior bottoms, and a larger portion of the supply remains in profit. CryptoQuant's Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is still in the Bear Phase, not the Extreme Bear Phase that typically precedes the bottoming-out process.
(Source：The Block)