Bitcoin difficulty just plunged 11% but a projected rebound next week may decide miners’ fate
Bitcoin's mining difficulty dropped over 11%, but a projected rapid rebound suggests this was due to temporary curtailment rather than miner capitulation.Summary
Bitcoin's mining difficulty saw an 11.16% decrease, the largest negative adjustment since the 2021 China mining ban, reflecting a drop in online hashrate. This drop could stem from three factors: forced curtailment (like weather outages), economics-driven shutdowns due to low hashprice, or structural shifts where miners reallocate capital to AI. The key indicator for the future is the next difficulty adjustment; current estimates project a 12% rebound, which would suggest the drop was due to transitory curtailment and rational idling. If this rebound fails, it signals deeper financial distress or capitulation, which would be confirmed by sustained low hashprice, repeated negative difficulty adjustments, increased miner selling pressure, and falling ASIC resale prices. Ultimately, the speed of the hashrate's return will determine if this was a temporary operational blip or the start of a significant miner exodus.
(Source：CryptoSlate)