todayonchain.com

I'm not confident we hit a true capitulation in bitcoin, derivatives expert says

CoinDesk
A derivatives expert suggests Bitcoin has not experienced true capitulation based on futures market behavior.

Summary

Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, stated he is not confident that Bitcoin recently experienced a true capitulation event, despite a recent 10% drop to around $60,000. Capitulation, which typically marks the bottom of a bear market, is evidenced in the futures market when futures trade at a significant discount to spot prices. Historically, during bear market bottoms, the 90-day futures traded at massive discounts, such as the 9% discount seen when Bitcoin bottomed below $20,000 in late 2022. Last week's dip only briefly saw futures slip into a discount, with the 90-day basis barely reaching -100 basis points, and fixed basis currently sitting around 4%. This lack of a significant discount suggests bearish pressure has not been fully exhausted, implying scope for another potential leg lower until futures traders truly capitulate.

(Source:CoinDesk)