Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Intact, and the Latest Sell-Off Shows Why

A report from Kaiko Research argues that Bitcoin's recent price correction, falling from near $126,000 to the $60,000–$70,000 range (a 52% drawdown), actually confirms the long-standing four-year halving cycle rather than contradicting it. Historically, post-halving peaks are followed by 50-80% drawdowns lasting about a year. While structural changes like spot Bitcoin ETF adoption have occurred, Kaiko notes these have only changed the manifestation of volatility, evidenced by significant ETF outflows during the sell-off. Despite challenges from analysts who cite global liquidity or suggest a 5-year cycle, Kaiko maintains that Bitcoin is following its historical pattern, currently being at the predicted 30% mark of the cycle. The firm cautions that bear markets involve multiple failed rallies before a sustainable bottom, and current market indicators like funding rates and open interest show significant deleveraging.

(Source：BeInCrypto)