Ethereum Price Hits Breakdown Target — But Is a Bigger Drop to $1,000 Coming?
Despite hitting a breakdown target near $1,800 and rebounding 23%, Ethereum's bounce lacks conviction due to weak momentum and selling by long-term holders.Summary
Ethereum's price hit its predicted breakdown target near $1,800 in early February, dropping to $1,740 before rebounding by about 23%. However, technical analysis suggests this rebound lacks strength; the daily chart shows a hidden bearish divergence where momentum improved while price made lower highs. Furthermore, the 12-hour chart is forming a bearish pole and flag continuation pattern, supported by weak On-Balance Volume (OBV).
On-chain data indicates the bounce is driven by short-term traders, as the Short-Term Holder NUPL metric recovered too quickly from capitulation levels, resembling past failed bottoms. Conversely, long-term holders are increasing their selling pressure, evidenced by a widening negative 30-day rolling Hodler Net Position Change. This suggests conviction is low among stable investors.
Key levels show that failure to reclaim resistance at $2,150, and especially $2,780, keeps downside risk high. Losing support at $1,750 could expose the $1,510 zone, and a full breakdown of the bearish flag projects a significant drop toward $1,000.
(Source：BeInCrypto)