Only 10,200 BTC is at quantum risk big enough to move markets, CoinShares says

A report by digital asset manager CoinShares challenges the narrative of an imminent quantum computing crisis for Bitcoin, arguing that estimates of 20% to 50% vulnerability are overstated. CoinShares focused on legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses, estimating about 1.6 million BTC (roughly 8% of supply) are theoretically exposed. However, the firm calculates that only about 10,200 BTC are concentrated enough to cause "appreciable market disruption" if stolen. The rest is scattered across over 32,000 UTXOs averaging 50 BTC each, making them less attractive targets. CoinShares suggests that breaking current cryptography requires fault-tolerant quantum systems vastly more powerful than current machines, placing the threat at least a decade away, and advocates for a gradual transition to post-quantum signatures as a foreseeable engineering problem.

(Source：CoinDesk)